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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still